It’s officially Friday, football fans. Which means Saturday is tomorrow. Which means…
College. Football. Is. Back.
The bulk of Big Ten teams will get their 2016 underway underway tomorrow (or have already), and here’s how I see the conference race shaking out this season.
(Projected Big Ten record in parenthesis)
BIG TEN WEST
1. Iowa (7-2)
This should be another special year for the Hawkeyes, but I don’t see them going 12-0 during the regular season again. I’d guess they drop games to both Penn State and Michigan, which means the final game of the season against the Huskers could have division title implications. With a perfect non-conference record, Iowa finishes the regular season 10-2 and is once again in the mix for a New Years Six bowl berth.
2. Nebraska (6-3)
In my official Husker prediction from Wednesday, I have Nebraska dropping Big Ten games to Indiana, Ohio State, and Iowa. This scenario means the Huskers are relevant right until the very end, but come up just short of a trip to the Big Ten title game.
3. Minnesota (5-4)
From here on down, it gets tricky. I could see Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Northwestern all being within a game of third place in the West. As of today, I’ve got Minnesota winning games against Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue, and Northwestern. If Mitch Leidner has a huge season (as some NFL types think he could), a win or two over Nebraska, Wisconsin, Penn State, or Iowa isn’t out of the question either.
4. Wisconsin (4-5)
I have Wisconsin losing to Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa, and Nebraska. A non-conference loss to LSU means the Badgers will just barely sneak into a bowl game with no room to spare. They might be the second or third most talented team in the division…but that schedule is just plain tough.
5. Northwestern (3-6)
Another team that could finish as high as second or third in the West, but has a rougher schedule than some of the other teams in the division. Wins over Indiana (not a gimme), Purdue, and Illinois give the ‘Cats three victories, while losses to Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Minnesota account for the defeats. If QB Clayton Thorson improves from a year ago, I could see Northwestern stealing one of those final two.
6. Illinois (2-7)
Lovie Smith’s hiring was one of the splashiest moves of the offseason, but it’ll take some time to rebuild the Illini after the Tim Beckman mess. Purdue and Rutgers go in the win column, but that’s about it. Getting back to a bowl game would be a fantastic season for Illinois.
7. Purdue (1-8)
They just plain lack the talent and overall fan interest to be a serious player in the Big Ten right now. I like Darrell Hazell a lot, but this is probably it for him. Danny Hope may have created this mess, but Hazell hasn’t been able to do much to fix it. Even if the Boilers go 3-0 in the non-conference (which I doubt they do), the lone win against Maryland in conference play just isn’t good enough.
BIG TEN EAST
1. Michigan State (9-0)
I think it takes a perfect Big Ten season to win the East this year, and Michigan State’s schedule sets up the best to make it happen. They get Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio State all at home, with their biggest road test being at Penn State. Plus, their defense has a chance be improved over year ago, and Tyler O’Connor has already proven he can win big games as a starting quarterback. Not many people are picking Sparty in this spot, which is exactly how Mark Dantonio wants it.
2. Ohio State (8-1)
Ohio State has a few tough ones this year, including a non-conference test on the road at Oklahoma. The Buckeyes are young, but talented, all over the field. That shouldn’t be an issue by the time they play their two toughest Big Ten contests: at Michigan State on Nov. 19, and at home against Michigan on Nov. 26. If they got both of those games at home, I’d say no problem, but it will be tough to win in East Lansing. That said, my jaw won’t hit the floor if OSU gets them both and wins the East.
3. Michigan (7-2)
The Wolverines are plenty dynamic on defense, but I’m still not sure what to expect out of the quarterback position. With as difficult as the Big Ten East figures to be this year, I’m not sold the Wolverines can go on the road and win at both Michigan State and Ohio State. The trip to Iowa City won’t be a cakewalk either. Jim Harbaugh’s club will be tough, but I think they come up just short of an East title.
4. Penn State (6-3)
I’m anticipating a big step forward for the Penn State offense with Christian Hackenburg off the NFL. He’s a talented player, but it felt like a “square peg - round hole” type situation last year in Happy Valley. I’m picking Penn State to beat Iowa at home, but drop games to the three big guns in the East - Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State. They’re just not quite at the same level talent wise.
5. Indiana (4-5)
The Hoosiers will score plenty, and four conference wins (Nebraska, Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue) should be more than enough to get them back to a bowl game. I spoke to Kevin Wilson at Big Ten media days, and he seems re-energized by his recent contract extension and the addition of Tom Allen as defensive coordinator. If Indiana can find a way to be even average on defense, this club could surprise some folks.
6. Rutgers (1-8)
Rutgers has some talent here and there, but it’s going to take Chris Ash a few seasons to sort out the mess left behind by Kyle Flood and company. Chris Laviano doesn’t feel like a Big Ten quarterback to me, and there seems to be a real lack of play makers on offense. Ultimately, the season’s final week should determine whether its Rutgers or Maryland that goes winless in the Big Ten.
7. Maryland (0-9)
The good news? DJ Durkin seems to be a pretty good coach, and Maryland is making a serious investment in their future with facilities upgrades across the board. The bad news? The Terps just aren’t very good right now. Their best chance for a conference win might come early in the season against Purdue, but the Boilermakers are the more talented team right now….and that’s saying something.
BIG TEN TITLE GAME
Michigan State over Iowa
Same teams, same stadium, same result. Michigan State may end up 9-0 in the Big Ten, but an early season loss to Notre Dame makes them sweat it out a bit during the playoff selection show. Ultimately, the strength of schedule and depth of quality teams in the league helps them out, and Sparty ends up back in the College Football Playoff as the #3 seed.
This time around, however, things get much more interesting for the Rose Bowl bid (which, despite the anti-Hawkeye crowd’s cries last year, was an absolute no-brainer). Ohio State finishes the year 10-2 with losses to Oklahoma and Michigan State (both on the road), while Michigan also finishes 10-2 with road losses to Sparty and the Buckeyes. Iowa, meanwhile, finishes the year 10-3 (losses to Penn State, Michigan, and Michigan State), but has a division title to their credit.
If that scenario were to play out, I’d say Ohio State has a slight edge for the Rose Bowl bid in the eyes of the committee with the best win of the bunch coming against the Wolverines.
Another thing to consider - the Orange Bowl is also in the mix for Big Ten team this year if things fall correctly. It’s probably a long shot for the Big Ten to get three teams in, but there’s a strong chance the committee would favor the Wolverines over the Hawkeyes if that were the scenario because of the head to head matchup.
Alright, enough with the predicting. Let the fun begin!
