The NFL finally returns tonight, with a Super Bowl rematch between Denver and Carolina set as the lid-lifter for the season.
So, as we sit on the eve of professional football’s return, here’s how I think each divisional and playoff race will pan out this season.
One note – I didn’t actually go through each team’s schedule game by game and play out the season – the record you see in parenthesis is more of a numerical estimation of how good each team will be this year.
AFC EAST
1. New England Patriots (11-5)
2. Miami Dolphins (8-8)
3. New York Jets (7-9)
4. Buffalo Bills (6-10)
As long as the Patriots manage 2-2 without Tom Brady, the rest of this division won’t put up much of a fight. The Bills are riddled with suspension issues already, and Rex Ryan is ultimately unemployed by the end of the season. The Jets defense is among the best in the division, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is due for one of his classically
bad seasons. Ryan Tannehill continues his trend of being a very expensive .500 quarterback.
AFC NORTH
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
2. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
3. Baltimore Ravens (9-7)
4. Cleveland Browns (2-14)
It’s probably to toughest division in all of football once again. Pittsburgh’s offense is the tops in the NFL, and it leads the Steelers to the top overall seed in the AFC (their defense is sneaky good too...). Cincinnati manages to grab a wildcard spot, and Baltimore is in it all the way until the end. And Cleveland…is Cleveland.
AFC SOUTH
1. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7)
2. Indianapolis Colts (8-8)
3. Houston Texans (6-10)
4. Tennessee Titans (4-12)
The Colts may have a top five quarterback in Andrew Luck, but they have a bottom five or six overall roster. The same issues that have continually plagued Indy keep them out of the playoffs this season. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has gotten better and better over the last few years, and as Blake Bortles makes a jump forward this season, the team does too. The Texans offense struggles to find consistency under Brock Osweiler, and the Titans just aren’t there yet. Top to bottom, it’s the weakest division in the AFC, but a playoff berth is a playoff berth.
AFC WEST
1. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
2. Oakland Raiders (9-7)
3. Denver Broncos (7-9)
4. San Diego Chargers (2-14)
Although KC’s offense still has some pretty significant questions, their defense should help carry them to a division title. Oakland wins some big games this year and is the most improved team in the division, while Denver sees a significant fall-off, mainly due to inefficient quarterback play. San Diego still has defensive issues that will hold them back – not having Joey Bosa ready to start the year is among them.
AFC PLAYOFFS
Wild Card:
(3) Kansas City def. (6) Oakland
(5) Cincinnati def. (4) Jacksonville
(1) Pittsburgh, (2) New England – BYE
Divisional:
(1) Pittsburgh def. (3) Kansas City
(2) New England def. (5) Cincinnati
Conference Championship:
(2) New England def. (1) Pittsburgh
NFC EAST
1. New York Giants (10-6)
2. Washington Redskins (9-7)
3. Dallas Cowboys (5-11)
4. Philadelphia Eagles (3-13)
It looks like New York and Washington are the class of this division, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see either team win it. Dallas will have some peaks and valleys while Dak Prescott goes through growing pains, as will Philadelphia with Carson Wentz.
NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay Packers (12-4)
2. Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
3. Chicago Bears (6-10)
4. Detroit Lions (4-12)
The Vikings are still a small notch below Green Bay, but the Sam Bradford trade may have salvaged their season. He won’t go out and win the Vikes a ton of games on his own, but he’s also not the liability Shaun Hill would have been. The Aaron Rodgers – Jordy Nelson connection should be back in full force this year, which takes the Packers offense to the next level. Chicago and Detroit have some pretty significant unknowns heading into the season, so while both could be a few games better or worse, it’s unlikely they catch the top two.
NFC SOUTH
1. Carolina Panthers (12-4)
2. Atlanta Falcons (9-7)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8)
4. New Orleans Saints (7-9)
Carolina has a chance to be even better this year on offense with their best receiver, Kelvin Benjamin, back from injury. The Panthers are also still a solid defensive club, despite losing Josh Norman in the offseason. The Falcons finally find a way to toughen up this season in year two under Dan Quinn, and the Bucs surprise a few teams this year as Winston improves. The Saints will struggle a bit, but should be better over the next few seasons now that Drew Brees’ contract is less of a burden and the team can get out of salary cap hell.
NFC WEST
1. Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
2. Arizona Cardinals (11-5)
3. Los Angeles Rams (6-10)
4. San Francisco 49ers (2-14)
This has a chance to be the best divisional race in the NFL, with both the Seahawks and Cardinals being legitimate postseason threats. Ultimately, the Seahawks defensive prowess wins them the West, but their offense will be both more dynamic and diverse than it has been recently. The Rams will struggle despite a solid defense, as they continue to juggle quarterbacks. The Niners are action-packed with issues and will be in contention for the #1 overall draft pick.
NFC PLAYOFFS
Wildcard:
(5) Arizona def. (4) NY Giants
(3) Green Bay def. (6) Minnesota
(1) Seattle, (2) Carolina - BYE
Divisional:
(1) Seattle def. (5) Arizona
(3) Green Bay def. (2) Carolina
Conference Championship:
(1) Seattle def. (3) Green Bay
SUPERBOWL:
Seattle def. New England
The last time we saw this game, New England snatched victory from the jaws of defeat thanks to Malcom Butler’s interception in the end zone. This year, there’s no Marshawn Lynch to NOT hand the ball off to, so Pete Carroll decides to let Russell Wilson just run it in himself. The Seahawks will need their offensive line to improve to get to this spot, but their playmakers on both offense and defense appear to be hitting their primes. For New England, Tom Brady comes up just short of Super Bowl title number five, as late season injuries to key offensive weapons slow the Patriots.
