Since 2022, Nebraska and Iowa have been at war with a drought that never seems to leave. At times, rain has the upper hand and drought retreats. Then, just as it seemed like rain was back, it would be dry again, and the drought would return.
Part of the reason we never seem to escape the drought is that we have been dry for the past several years. From January 2022 to May 2025, Omaha has received about 86.6" of rainfall. Seems impressive, right? However, if you compare it to the normal amount of rainfall over that same period, 102.52", you begin to see the issue. With this stretch of prolonged dryness, drought is never too far away.
So, what is the current state of the drought as we head for the summer? What does the drought outlook show for the summer? Will we ever fully break the drought?
Let's start with the present.
The March blizzards and April storms have helped beat back the drought in many of our neighborhoods. The Drought Monitor as of May 1 shows that moderate drought (2/5) is confined to northeastern and southeastern Nebraska & a small corridor around Atlantic in Iowa. The rest of us, including most of the Omaha metro, are in the "abnormally dry" category, technically not in a drought. This category highlights a region recovering from drought or about to head into one. For Omaha, it's a mix of both, the future determines which side of the coin we are on.
It's a tale of two states if we zoom out. Most of Nebraska is covered in drought, while Iowa remains almost entirely drought-free.
Now let's move into the future.
Unfortunately, our longer-range forecasts show much of the region entering a drier pattern as we head into the summer. This does not mean it will not rain, but rain events may become farther apart.
Due to this, the US Drought Monitor anticipates redeveloping drought over most of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. As for how severe the drought gets is to be determined, but this is not a good sign as we head into the growing season.
Finally, let's look at some numbers.
What will it take to break the drought entirely? Here are the latest numbers, as well as the % of ending based on climatology:
- END OF MAY: Between 6-10" of rainfall, or 150-200% of our monthly rainfall.
- END OF SUMMER: Between 17-22" of rainfall, or 100-130% of our seasonal rainfall.
- END OF 2025: Between 25-30" of rainfall, or 100-130% of our yearly rainfall.
To eliminate the drought, we would need every month to be at least average on rain, if not above average. Which is doable, but with a drier pattern looming on the horizon, it may seem unlikely in the near future. Hopefully, we can stay wet enough to stave off the worst excesses of the drought. So, keep doing those rain dances, and hopefully Mother Nature may provide!
