It's September, meaning the transition from summer into fall. That time when the scent of pumpkins and apples percolates the air under a cobalt blue sky. When we think of fall weather, we often do not think of severe weather. This can beg the question, are we finally done with severe weather in Nebraska and Iowa? Can we even get severe weather in the fall?
Boy, do we need the break from severe weather? As many may have guessed, 2024 has been the most active and destructive severe weather season for the Omaha area. Although we may not have had the most events in any year, when we did get severe weather, it hit hard. Here are a few quick facts that stand out from 2024.
- As of September 6, the KMTV viewing area has seen 86 tornadoes! This is well, well above the average of just 16 tornadoes. It doubles the previous record of 2008 with 46 tornadoes.
- We had 5 days with a Tornado Warning in Douglas County, the most out of any year.
- In total, 31 severe thunderstorm warnings had been issued for Douglas County, the most out of any year.
- The April 26th Elkhorn EF-4 was the first violent (EF-4+) tornado in Omaha since the May 6, 1975 tornado.
- On June 25, we tied the largest hailstone record in the Omaha metro with a 4.5" hailstone (grapefruit size) in Bellevue.
- Eppley Airfield had two separate windstorms that produced 90 mph winds, June 25 and July 31, which places it 4th and 5th for the highest wind gusts measured at Eppley.
- The windstorm on July 31 caused the largest power outage in OPPD history, and the 3rd largest outage in LES history (Lincoln).
To read more about these individual events you can read these articles on the April 26 tornado outbreak, the May 21 tornado outbreak, the May 24 derecho/tornado event, the June 25 massive hail/windstorms, and theJuly 31 windstorm. At a later date, a full recap of the 2024 severe weather season will be written.
Now onto the main question, are we done? While we can never say definitively that we won't see more severe weather this season, climatology shows that we are certainly past the peak of severe weather season. As fall progresses, it becomes rarer to get warm, moisture-laden air from the Gulf of Mexico this far north, meaning the key ingredient for severe weather becomes scarce.
While it is rare to see severe weather, it is not impossible. Between 1999 and 2023, Nebraska and Iowa see about 1-2 tornadoes per month (Sept, Oct, Nov, and Dec). These are more common in September and October versus November and December. In terms of traditional severe weather, Omaha has seen severe weather as late as October, most commonly in windstorms. Even then, it is rare.
There are exceptions, within the past 15 years, there are two high-profile severe weather events that have taken place in the late season. These are the October 4, 2013, EF-4 tornado that hit the eastern side of Wayne. Then there is the December 15, 2021, tornado outbreak where over 100 tornadoes occurred from eastern Nebraska into Minnesota. This latter event is the sole reason why there is now an "average" number of tornadoes seen in December before 2021 tornadoes in the final month of the year were almost unheard of.
Specifically, what about 2024? While we cannot give a specific answer this far out, the trends are encouraging for not too much in the way of severe weather. First, we have entered into a dry pattern that holds for at least the next week, perhaps longer than that into late September. Long-range patterns show this dry trend continuing into the first half of autumn, meaning rain chances could be more sparse. This naturally would keep severe weather chances low.
Of course, all it could take is one day when the ingredients for severe weather come together. So, while the outlook is favorable for an end to severe weather season, we can never say never. That is why it is important to keep updated with the forecast in case any sneaky severe event does come around as we head into fall.
In the meantime, we will have to get ready for the snowy season to begin in the next couple of months...
